#QuestionDuJour: Does change happens slowly or rapidly?
Growth is typically slow. Death, destruction of a system, is rapid. Interesting read: The “Seneca effect” why decline is faster than growth … Photo: Moral letters to Lucilius; Seneca Letter 91
The article shows graphs from “Mayan collapse”. I can’t help but notice a biological pattern here. This how our nerves & muscles work. Cells slowly build up Na+ outside their membranes followed by sudden Na influx. The “sudden collapse” of polarisation is crucial step.
What does this mean? The slow buildup of Na+ takes up ATP (energy) creating a “tension” (polarisation) in the border (cell membrane) like a battery storing energy, waiting an opportunity to “collapse”. Is there a “social battery” storing “social energy” through polarisation?
The “collapse” of Na+ in the nervous / muscle cells is a SUDDEN EVENT called de-polarisation. Depolarisation becomes viral, from one cell to another, populating a nervous /muscle signal.
In a more abstract way (pattern) we see the “collapse” of European monarchy happened suddenly. American Revolution, French Revolution etc. Political polarisation is like a “battery” slowly storing energy? A sudden collapse becomes viral from one cell to another.
The New Testament points out that while pregnancy takes a long time, the birth is a sudden event. The day of birth is unpredictable. Although giving birth is painful, having a newborn is one of the happiest days in one’s life. Lots of symbolism here.
And the opposite is also true. God’s divine plan in Bible is shown in a sudden way with signs of birth or death. The exact timing is unpredictable, but not the fate of those who commit hybris & disrespect the divine laws.
Christian theology is based on the the philosophical & spiritual investigation of “Sudden Change”, birth or collapse, studying situations where you can’t predict the date but the good / bad longterm direction of the outcome.
Following the interesting remark of @Grurray, natural growth is NOT exponential but logistic, converging to a maximum, the “carrying capacity”. You never know where you are on the curve. Exponential growth is just an illusion.
OVERSHOOT: “When a population surpasses its carrying capacity it enters a condition known as overshoot.”
Another interesting perspective, by @GeorgiosGs, on Earthquakes. The research shows a similar underlying mechanism: SUDDEN release of strain that slowly builds on the plates beneath for a long period of time.
A twitter user: How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly
Exactly! I also like the clear distinction of @nntaleb on Sophrosyne (σωφροσύνη) vs. Rationality based on “graphs”, “facts” and “evidence”, all based on current state. Current state – one day – will collapse. It’s hybris to act on the presumption of immortality.
François Benoux wisdom 